The biggest threat to your fall fundraising isn’t the election

If you’re staring at the election calendar and thinking, “Maybe we should scale back our fall appeals until this blows over,” you’re not alone.

Inboxes are flooded, and ad spending is through the roof. You might feel the urge to wait for the noise to die down.

During FreeWill’s 2026 Giving Season Summit last week, co-founder Patrick Schmitt walked through research that suggests that instinct is exactly wrong.

The research
Economist Stephanie Karol published her findings in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization in 2025.

The bad news first: for every dollar that goes to a political campaign, 37 cents of charitable giving disappears.

That seems like a pretty clear signal that elections hurt fundraising.

But Karol dug further. She found that 133% of that displacement is explained by charities reducing their own fundraising activity during election years.

Her conclusion: Donors don’t stop giving during election years. Nonprofits stop asking.

And when nonprofits keep asking, election seasons actually produce more charitable giving, not less!

The attack-ad effect
This next learning is pretty fascinating — and makes an awful lot of sense when you think about it.

Karol’s second paper, on negative political advertising, found that attack ads actually increase giving to non-ideological charities.

When people get tired of the noise, they turn toward what feels uncomplicated — food banks or community organizations — positive forces for good near home.

If your nonprofit isn’t overtly political, the attack-ad cycle may be working in your favor. But only if you’re in the inbox when it happens.

How to hold your ground
Segment harder, not quieter. If inbox fatigue is a real concern, the answer is smarter targeting, not fewer sends. 

Equimundo sent nearly twice as many emails to a list 50% smaller and saw 31% higher click rates — the same principle applies here.

Look for the nonpartisan angle. If voter education fits your mission (and I’ll bet it does), it’s a natural reason to show up in the inbox during election season. 

It’s also great cultivation to keep people engaged ahead of year-end. Organizations like VoteAmerica offer free, 501(c)(3)-compliant tools you can share with your supporters to help them check their voter registration status or apply for an absentee ballot.

Don’t apologize for showing up. Resist the urge to soften your ask or lead with “We know your inbox is busy right now.” 

That signals your message isn’t worth reading. If the work matters in October, say so like it matters in October.

Watch for the post-election window. Karol’s research found a significant donation surge for nonprofits with missions aligned to the priorities of the losing side in the weeks after the 2016 election. 

If your mission and work connect to election outcomes, have two drafts ready before November.

The bottom line
Predatory political email practices like fake matches and invoice-style subject lines are infuriating.

But your donors aren’t choosing between your organization and a Senate candidate. They’re choosing between your email and silence. 

And choosing not to show up because you assume supporters might be fatigued by other email programs could cost you in December.

Check our events list for more or reply to this email to submit one for consideration.

‘Til next time!
Sara